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Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases

Abstract:

The World Health Organization considers an Ebola outbreak to have ended once 42 days have passed since the last possible exposure to a confirmed case. Benefits of a quick end-of-outbreak declaration, such as reductions in trade/travel restrictions, must be balanced against the chance of flare-ups from undetected residual cases. We show how epidemiological modelling can be used to estimate the surveillance level required for decision-makers to be confident that an outbreak is over. Results fro...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted Manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1098/rstb.2018.0431

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Zoology
Oxford college:
Christ Church
Publisher:
Royal Society Publisher's website
Journal:
Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences Journal website
Volume:
374
Issue:
1776
Pages:
Article: 20180431
Publication date:
2019-05-20
Acceptance date:
2018-12-04
DOI:
EISSN:
1471-2970
ISSN:
0962-8436
Pubs id:
pubs:949904
URN:
uri:5d696c15-75d0-4724-9a93-988ffc62488c
UUID:
uuid:5d696c15-75d0-4724-9a93-988ffc62488c
Local pid:
pubs:949904

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