- Abstract:
-
The probabilistic skill of ensemble forecasts for the first month and the first season of the forecasts is assessed, where model uncertainty is represented by the a) multi-model, b) perturbed parameters, and c) stochastic parameterisation ensembles. The main foci of the assessment are the Brier Skill Score for near-surface temperature and precipitation over land areas and the spread-skill relationship of sea surface temperature in the tropical equatorial Pacific. On the monthly timescale, the...
Expand abstract - Publisher copy:
- 10.1029/2011GL048123
-
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- Journal:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 38
- Issue:
- 16
- Publication date:
- 2011
- DOI:
- ISSN:
-
0094-8276
- URN:
-
uuid:59f25410-dc72-4d54-99a4-7c7b2cbd04fc
- Source identifiers:
-
179521
- Local pid:
- pubs:179521
- Language:
- English
- Copyright date:
- 2011
Journal article
Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
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