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Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

Abstract:

The probabilistic skill of ensemble forecasts for the first month and the first season of the forecasts is assessed, where model uncertainty is represented by the a) multi-model, b) perturbed parameters, and c) stochastic parameterisation ensembles. The main foci of the assessment are the Brier Skill Score for near-surface temperature and precipitation over land areas and the spread-skill relationship of sea surface temperature in the tropical equatorial Pacific. On the monthly timescale, the...

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Publisher copy:
10.1029/2011GL048123

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
38
Issue:
16
Publication date:
2011-01-01
DOI:
ISSN:
0094-8276
Source identifiers:
179521
Language:
English
Pubs id:
pubs:179521
UUID:
uuid:59f25410-dc72-4d54-99a4-7c7b2cbd04fc
Local pid:
pubs:179521
Deposit date:
2012-12-19

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