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Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model

Abstract:

We introduce a dynamic disequilibrium input-output model that was used to forecast the economics of the COVID-19 pandemic. This model was designed to understand the upstream and downstream propagation of the industry-specific demand and supply shocks caused by COVID-19, which were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. The model, which was inspired in part by previous work on the response to natural disasters, includes the introduction of a new function...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104527

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Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-9966-1674
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Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-0189-7919
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Mathematical Institute
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-8333-561X
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Mathematical Institute
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-7871-073X
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control More from this journal
Volume:
144
Article number:
104527
Publication date:
2022-09-13
Acceptance date:
2022-09-11
DOI:
EISSN:
1879-1743
ISSN:
0165-1889
Pmid:
36117523
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1278770
Local pid:
pubs:1278770
Deposit date:
2022-11-10

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