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On the validity of the regression discontinuity design for estimating electoral effects: new evidence from over 40,000 close races

Abstract:

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a valuable tool for identifying electoral effects, but this design is only effective when relevant actors do not have precise control over election results. Several recent papers contend that such precise control is possible in large elections, pointing out that the incumbent party is more likely to win very close elections in the United States House of Representatives in recent periods. In this article, we examine whether similar patterns occur...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1111/ajps.12127

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Politics & Int Relations
Oxford college:
Nuffield College
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
American Journal of Political Science Journal website
Volume:
59
Issue:
1
Pages:
259-274
Publication date:
2014-09-02
DOI:
EISSN:
1540-5907
ISSN:
0092-5853
Source identifiers:
679436
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:679436
UUID:
uuid:593b7f4b-a2a8-4e26-975b-822f7d989764
Local pid:
pubs:679436
Deposit date:
2017-05-04

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