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On the validity of the regression discontinuity design for estimating electoral effects: new evidence from over 40,000 close races

Abstract:

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a valuable tool for identifying electoral effects, but this design is only effective when relevant actors do not have precise control over election results. Several recent papers contend that such precise control is possible in large elections, pointing out that the incumbent party is more likely to win very close elections in the United States House of Representatives in recent periods. In this article, we examine whether similar patterns occur...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1111/ajps.12127

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
Nuffield College
Department:
Oxford, SSD, Politics & Int Relations
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
American Journal of Political Science Journal website
Volume:
59
Issue:
1
Pages:
259-274
Publication date:
2014-09-02
DOI:
EISSN:
1540-5907
ISSN:
0092-5853
Pubs id:
pubs:679436
URN:
uri:593b7f4b-a2a8-4e26-975b-822f7d989764
UUID:
uuid:593b7f4b-a2a8-4e26-975b-822f7d989764
Local pid:
pubs:679436

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