Benford’s Law and COVID-19 Reporting

Journal article

Trust in the reported data of contagious diseases in real time is important for policy makers. Media and politicians have cast doubt on Chinese reported data on COVID-19 cases. We find Chinese confirmed infections match the distribution expected in Benford’s Law and are similar to that seen in the U.S. and Italy. We identify a more likely candidate for problems in the policy making process: Poor multilateral data sharing on testing and sampling.

Authors: Koch, C; Okamura, K

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Journal: Economics Letters
• Volume: 196
• Article number: 109573
• Publication date: 2020-09-14
• Acceptance date: 2020-09-12
• DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109573
• ISSN: 0165-1765
• Language: English
• Keywords: corona COVID-19; world health organization; statistical reporting; government accountability