The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10-6 K m2 kg-1 s-1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequenci...Expand abstract
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Can the Frequency of Blocking Be Described by a Red Noise Process?
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