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Can the Frequency of Blocking Be Described by a Red Noise Process?

Abstract:

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10-6 K m2 kg-1 s-1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequenci...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/2008JAS2907.1

Authors


Hoskins, BJ More by this author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
Journal:
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Volume:
66
Issue:
7
Pages:
2143-2149
Publication date:
2009-07-05
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0469
ISSN:
0022-4928
URN:
uuid:515dcf0d-8026-499c-b695-26832a790b42
Source identifiers:
410341
Local pid:
pubs:410341
Language:
English

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