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Wind Power Density Forecasting Using Wind Ensemble Predictions and Time Series Models

Abstract:

Wind power is an increasingly used form of renewable energy. The uncertainty in wind generation is very large due to the inherent variability in wind speed, and this needs to be understood by operators of power systems and wind farms. To assist with the management of this risk, this paper investigates methods for predicting the probability density function of generated wind power from one to ten days ahead at five U.K. wind farm locations. These density forecasts provide a description of the ...

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Publication date:
2009-09-05
URN:
uuid:4663005e-2131-4d5e-b257-1f91311d68e4
Local pid:
oai:eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk:1706

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