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Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: pitfalls and their overcoming

Abstract:

Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. A widely used approach to quantify this phenomenon is standardizing temperature data relative to the local mean and variability of a reference period. Here we demonstrate that this conventional procedure leads to exaggerated estimates of increasing temperature variability and extremes. For example, the occurrence of ‘2-sigma extremes’ would be overestimated by 48.2% compared to a given referenc...

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Publication status:
In press
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted Manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/2015GL066307

Authors


Zscheischler, J More by this author
Heimann, M More by this author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, SSD, SOGE, Environmental Change Institute
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European Space Agency More from this funder
European Commission More from this funder
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union Publisher's website
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters Journal website
Publication date:
2015
DOI:
ISSN:
1944-8007
URN:
uuid:40a7ae55-4bcf-457b-b20f-e8e1409171e2
Source identifiers:
572764
Local pid:
pubs:572764

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