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Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming

Abstract:

Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. A widely used approach to quantify this phenomenon is standardizing temperature data relative to the local mean and variability of a reference period. Here we demonstrate that this conventional procedure leads to exaggerated estimates of increasing temperature variability and extremes. For example, the occurrence of “two-sigma extremes” would be overestimated by 48.2% compared to a given refere...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/2015GL066307

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Environmental Change Institute
Role:
Author
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European Space Agency More from this funder
European Commission More from this funder
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union Publisher's website
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters Journal website
Volume:
42
Issue:
22
Pages:
9990-9998
Publication date:
2015-11-25
Acceptance date:
2015-11-03
DOI:
ISSN:
1944-8007
Source identifiers:
572764
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:572764
UUID:
uuid:40a7ae55-4bcf-457b-b20f-e8e1409171e2
Local pid:
pubs:572764
Deposit date:
2015-11-12

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