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Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

Abstract:

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, pro...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/2014WR015558

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Smith School
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Environmental Change Institute
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-2024-9191
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Journal:
Water Resources Research More from this journal
Volume:
50
Issue:
8
Pages:
6850-6873
Publication date:
2014-08-22
Acceptance date:
2014-08-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1944-7973
ISSN:
0043-1397
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:488643
UUID:
uuid:40587941-f60e-41d6-bda4-d8b24625db9d
Local pid:
pubs:488643
Source identifiers:
488643
Deposit date:
2015-11-12

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