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Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multithousand multimodel ensemble of simulations

Abstract:

A methodology for constraining climate forecasts, developed for application to the multithousand member perturbed physics ensemble of simulations completed by the distributed computing project ClimatePrediction.net, is here presented in detail. The methodology is extended to produce constrained forecasts of mean surface temperature and precipitation within 21 land-based regions and is validated with climate simulations from other models available from the IPCC (AR4) data set. The mean forecas...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1029/2007JD008712

Authors


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Institution:
Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Mathematical,Physical & Life Sciences Division - Physics
Role:
Author
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Institution:
Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Social Sciences Division - Environment,Centre for the - Environmental Change Institute
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Mathematical,Physical & Life Sciences Division - Physics
Role:
Author
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Natural Environment Research Council More from this funder
Commission of the European Communities More from this funder
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union Publisher's website
Journal:
Journal of Geophysical Research Journal website
Volume:
112
Pages:
Article: D24108
Publication date:
2007-12-05
DOI:
ISSN:
0148–0227
URN:
uuid:3ec3de2f-0cb2-4e67-b560-340f6c6ae473
Local pid:
ora:4353
Language:
English
Keywords:
Subjects:

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