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Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic

Abstract:

The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains—a low virulence (LV) strain outbreak followed by...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1098/rstb.2018.0274

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Mathematical Institute
Sub department:
Zoology
Oxford college:
Christ Church
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Royal Society Publisher's website
Journal:
Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences Journal website
Volume:
374
Issue:
1775
Article number:
20180274
Publication date:
2019-05-06
Acceptance date:
2019-05-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1471-2970
ISSN:
0962-8436
Source identifiers:
996415
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:996415
UUID:
uuid:3e875e6e-421d-4d8e-a1ab-8802e5eecaae
Local pid:
pubs:996415
Deposit date:
2019-05-07

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