On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.

Journal article

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; rel...

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Authors: Weisheimer, A; Palmer, T

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: Royal Society of London
• Journal: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society
• Volume: 11
• Issue: 96
• Pages: 20131162
• Publication date: 2014-07-01
• DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2013.1162
• EISSN: 1742-5662
• ISSN: 1742-5689
• Language: English
• Keywords: Seasons; Forecasting; Climate; Atmosphere; Oceans and Seas; Models, Theoretical; Europe; Reproducibility of Results; Weather; Decision Making