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The real butterfly effect

Abstract:

Historical evidence is reviewed to show that what Ed Lorenz meant by the iconic phrase 'the butterfly effect' is not at all captured by the notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in low-order chaos. Rather, as presented in his 1969 Tellus paper, Lorenz intended the phrase to describe the existence of an absolute finite-time predicability barrier in certain multi-scale fluid systems, implying a breakdown of continuous dependence on initial conditions for large enough forecast lea...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1088/0951-7715/27/9/R123

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Institute of Physics Publishing
Journal:
NONLINEARITY
Volume:
27
Issue:
9
Pages:
R123-R141
Publication date:
2014-09-05
DOI:
EISSN:
1361-6544
ISSN:
0951-7715
URN:
uuid:2e470cd3-7244-48fd-beb1-969704d193bb
Source identifiers:
484358
Local pid:
pubs:484358

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