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Forecasting (and Explaining) US Business Cycles.

Abstract:

This Paper uses multi-step forecasting models at horizons of 4 and 8 quarters to forecast and explain the growth of real per capita US GDP. In the modeling strategy, a priori sign restrictions play an important role. They are imposed not on impulse response functions but directly on the reduced form single or multi-step equations, unlike in recent work by Uhlig and Canova. This is possible because in this context, the reduced form inherits important structural sign properties; basically, that...

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Publisher:
CEPR
Volume:
4584
Series:
Discussion Papers
Host title:
C.E.P.R.Discussion Papers
Publication date:
2004-01-01
Paper number:
4584
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:2bef250c-9434-4315-8d4a-8c40e859e4da
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:11725
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

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