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Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world

Abstract:

Global-average temperatures are a powerful metric for both long-term climate change policy, and also to measure the aggregate fluctuations in weather experienced around the world. However, here we show how the consideration of anomalies in annual temperatures at the global land-average scale, particularly during extremely hot years, tends to overestimate the perceived severity of extreme heat actually felt by local communities during these events. Thus, when global-mean temperatures are used ...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Files:
Publisher copy:
10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2dc

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
Social Sciences Division
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Environmental Change Institute
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Environmental Change Institute
Role:
Author
More from this funder
Funding agency for:
Harrington, L
Grant:
NE/L010364/1
Australian Research Council More from this funder
Publisher:
IOP Publishing Publisher's website
Journal:
Environmental Research Letters Journal website
Volume:
14
Issue:
2
Article number:
024018
Publication date:
2019-02-13
Acceptance date:
2018-11-22
DOI:
EISSN:
1748-9326
Source identifiers:
946704
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:946704
UUID:
uuid:1ea4fddb-d927-4795-abe0-824f767fb92f
Local pid:
pubs:946704
Deposit date:
2018-11-28

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