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How predictable is technological progress?

Abstract:

Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical data on 53 technologies. We derive a closed form expression approximating the distribution of forecast errors as a function of time. Based on hind-casting experiments we show that this works well, making ...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Mathematical Institute
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Mathematical Institute
Role:
Author
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Name:
United States Department of Solar Energy Technologies Office
Grant:
DE-EE0006133
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Name:
European Commission
Grant:
FP7-ICT-2013-611272 (GROWTHCOM
More from this funder
Name:
Institute for New Economic Thinking
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Research Policy More from this journal
Publication date:
2016-01-06
DOI:
ISSN:
0048-7333
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:593328
UUID:
uuid:1c59c5e4-a32a-495d-b368-251baa05f438
Local pid:
pubs:593328
Source identifiers:
593328
Deposit date:
2016-01-21

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