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The moderate impact of the 2015 El Niño over East Africa and its representation in seasonal reforecasts

Abstract:

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, has been linked to intense rainfall over East Africa during the short rains season (October–December). However, we show here that during the extremely strong 2015 El Niño the precipitation anomaly over most of East Africa during the short rains season was less intense than experienced during previous El Niños, linked to less intense easterlies over the Indian Ocean. This moderat...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/jcli-d-19-0201.1

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Journal:
Journal of Climate More from this journal
Volume:
32
Issue:
22
Pages:
7989–8001
Publication date:
2019-08-26
Acceptance date:
2019-08-20
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0442
ISSN:
0894-8755
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:1054452
UUID:
uuid:1b614497-7148-41f7-bcba-fa80f3263685
Local pid:
pubs:1054452
Source identifiers:
1054452
Deposit date:
2019-09-20

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