Journal article
The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue
- Abstract:
- Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 2.0MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8
Authors
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- Nature Microbiology More from this journal
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 2019
- Pages:
- 1508-1515
- Publication date:
- 2019-06-10
- Acceptance date:
- 2019-05-01
- DOI:
- ISSN:
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2058-5276
- Pmid:
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31182801
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:1014905
- UUID:
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uuid:1b0785fc-872a-4576-8b38-51e22eaadf55
- Local pid:
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pubs:1014905
- Source identifiers:
-
1014905
- Deposit date:
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2019-07-03
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Messina et al
- Copyright date:
- 2019
- Notes:
- © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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