Journal article

The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900

Abstract:: Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate intervention. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here, we show that the continent has witnessed a long-term recession in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum since 1900-29 (40%) to 2010-15 (24%), interrupted at different times by periods of rapidly increasing and decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the last 115 years are inconsistent with simplistic explanations in terms of climate or intervention alone. Previous global initiatives had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change to the continued high transmission belt covering large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the last 15 years1,2, or have used maps of historical expert opinion3. We provide quantitative data comprising 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations to cover 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa.

Publication status:: Published

Peer review status:: Peer reviewed

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APA Style

Snow, R., Sartorius, B., Kyalo, D., Maina, J., Amratia, P., Mundia, C., Bejon, P., & Noor, A. (2017). The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900. Nature, 550, 515–518.

MLA Style

Snow, R., et al. “The Prevalence of Plasmodium Falciparum in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1900.” Nature, vol. 550, Springer Nature, 2017, pp. 515–18.

Chicago Style

Snow, R, B Sartorius, D Kyalo, J Maina, P Amratia, C Mundia, P Bejon, and A Noor. 2017. “The Prevalence of Plasmodium Falciparum in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1900.” Nature 550: 515–18.
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Files:: snow-et-al.pdf

(Preview, Accepted manuscript, pdf, 949.9KB, Terms of use)

Publisher copy:: 10.1038/nature24059

Authors

+ Snow, R More by this author

Institution:: University of Oxford
Division:: MSD
Department:: NDM
Sub department:: Tropical Medicine
Role:: Author

+ Sartorius, B More by this author

Role:: Author

+ Kyalo, D More by this author

Role:: Author

+ Maina, J More by this author

Role:: Author

+ Amratia, P More by this author

Role:: Author

More authors...

+ Department for International Development More from this funder

Grant:: Strengthening the Use of Data for Malaria Decision Making in Africa (DFID Programme Code # 203155

+ Wellcome Trust More from this funder

Grant:: 048335; 034694; 079080; 103602; 095127; 077092; 203077

+ International Development Research Centre, Canada More from this funder

Publisher:: Springer Nature
Journal:: Nature More from this journal
Volume:: 550
Pages:: 515–518
Publication date:: 2017-10-11
Acceptance date:: 2017-09-01
DOI:: 10.1038/nature24059
EISSN:: 1476-4687
ISSN:: 0028-0836

Pubs id:: pubs:724919
UUID:: uuid:147dcb73-1709-407f-b618-6ef3ad820296
Local pid:: pubs:724919
Source identifiers:: 724919
Deposit date:: 2017-09-01

Terms of use

Copyright holder:: Snow et al
Copyright date:: 2017
Notes:: Copyright © 2017 Authors. This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from Springer Nature at: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature24059

Licence:: Terms and Conditions of Use for Oxford University Research Archive

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