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Journal article

Missing nonvoters and misweighted samples: explaining the 2015 great British polling miss

Abstract:

Preelection polls for the 2015 UK General Election missed the final result by a considerable margin: underestimating the Conservative Party and overestimating Labour. Analyzing evidence for five theories of why the polls missed using British Election Study (BES) data, we find limited evidence for systematic vote intention misreporting, late swing, systematically different preferences among “don’t knows,” or differential turnout of parties’ supporters. By comparing the BES face-to-face probabi...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted Manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1093/poq/nfx015

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Department:
Oxford, Colleges and Halls, Nuffield College
Prosser, C More by this author
Publisher:
Oxford University Press Publisher's website
Journal:
Public Opinion Quarterly Journal website
Volume:
81
Issue:
3
Pages:
661–687
Publication date:
2017-05-24
Acceptance date:
2016-08-12
DOI:
EISSN:
1537-5331
ISSN:
0033-362X
Pubs id:
pubs:643715
URN:
uri:0483c1c0-2302-4bb1-89e9-b52ba6287c6a
UUID:
uuid:0483c1c0-2302-4bb1-89e9-b52ba6287c6a
Local pid:
pubs:643715

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