Protectionism and agricultural commodity trade

Thesis

This study has two main objectives. The first is to investigate the capacity and limits of spatial equilibrium modelling in the context of international agricultural commodity trade. The second is to identify protectionism and other factors distorting the pattern of trade in an international agricultural commodity market and to assess their relative importance. Wheat is chosen as the commodity of study.

It is shown how various distorting factors can be built into a basic model whose predictions as a result grow closer and closer to observed reality. The closeness of fit of the model to reality is measured by use of a simple statistic (called λ). Moreover, as the model is built up, the trade flow matrix shows where distortions lie, and what the success of particular model alterations are in capturing the nature of these distortions.

Protectionism is found to be the most significant cause of distortion in the international wheat market. In some cases, however, in particular the US Export Enhancement Program, it appears to be counter-distortionary i.e. redressing distortions on trade patterns caused by other protectionist policies. Also, the effects of including in the model countries additional to those in the basic model are analysed, and a comparison with the international soya market is made.

Authors: Booth, J; Booth, Jerome

• Alternative title: an investigation into world wheat trade using spatial equilibrium modelling
• Publication date: 1992
• DOI: 10.5287/ora-mvnj8vozd
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural industries; International trade; Protectionism